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2022年8月
2022年8月24日 拜登政府宣布 it would cancel up to $20,000 of federal student debt for certain borrowers. Borrowers with incomes less than $125,000元或250元,000 for joint filers are eligible for cancellation. Borrowers who received Pell grants at some point are eligible to have their debts cancelled up to $20,000, and all other borrowers are eligible to have $10,000年取消了.
We use administrative 追逐 banking and credit bureau data on 200,000 student debt holders to estimate how the benefits of this cancellation program might be distributed by household income and borrower 比赛 和种族.1
我们发现:
- Up to 34 percent of all debt is eligible to be cancelled, or $549 billion out of a total of $1.62 trillion in outstanding federal debt.
- For every dollar of cancellation received by households in the top 40 percent of the income distribution (more than $76,000), households in the bottom 40 percent (less than $52,000)收到$0.68. This assumes all borrowers between $125,000元及250元,000的收入是双重申报者, which our data suggest is true for the vast majority of borrowers in this income range. If we assume instead that all borrowers in this range are single filers, then lower-income households receive $1.22 in cancellation for every dollar received by higher income households.2
Figure 1: Higher income households receive slightly more cancellation dollars, but lower income households are more likely to have their debt fully cancelled.
- Lower income households are more likely to have their debt fully cancelled, primarily because lower income households tend to hold less debt relative to higher income households.
- 平均债务被取消 for all income groups is between $8,800 and $10,000 (see Figure 2). Lower income households are slightly more likely to have been Pell recipients, but less likely to have outstanding debt larger than $10,000.
Figure 2: 平均债务被取消 among those receiving cancellation is between $9,000元及10元,在不同的收入范围内增加了000美元, but relatively higher for 黑色的 households.
- The average 黑色的 household with debt receives roughly $11,000元取消, while the average 拉美裔 and 白色 households receive $9,500美元和9美元,000, 分别.
- The average 黑色的 household benefits relatively more from cancellation because 黑色的 households hold more student debt relative to their share of the population. The average 黑色的 household in the United States will receive 2.5 times as much cancellation as the average 白色 household (see Figure 3). The distribution of cancellation dollars roughly follows the distribution of debt holdings (see Figure 4).
Figure 3: 黑色的 and 拉美裔 households receive more cancellation relative to their population share.
Figure 4: The distribution of cancellation dollars by 比赛 和种族 is proportional to the distribution of debt held by each group.
1.我们的数据涵盖2016年. We reweight our sample so the resulting income distribution matches the income distribution of households with non-deferred student debt in the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances. We also restrict our sample in several ways to ensure the borrower’s 追逐 accounts are their primary accounts (see Greig and 沙利文 2021). Our measure of borrower income is the sum of all inflows into the borrower’s 追逐 accounts, excluding transfers from other accounts (e.g., transfers from savings or brokerage accounts into a checking account). This is a measure of net or take-home income, which we use to construct a measure of gross income by assuming an income tax withholding rate of between 13% and 20%, 视收入而定, 工资税率为7%.65%. Income withholding scales linearly from 13% up to 20% at $125,000 of net income and is then flat at 20% thereafter. Our data for 比赛 和种族 is taken from public voter rolls in Florida, 乔治亚州, and Louisiana. All analyses of 比赛 effects are restricted to those states with a total sample if 10,800 borrowers. See Farrell, Greig, and 沙利文 (2020) for further discussion of that sample. Our joint data set does not include information on whether a borrower received a Pell grant. To account for differences in 佩尔recipiency across income, 比赛, 和种族, we use data from the Baccalaureate and Beyond 2008/2012 survey, which provides data on student debt balances, 佩尔recipiency, and income four years after graduation. We then randomly assign 佩尔recipiency within our income groups such that the 佩尔recipiency rates within each group match Baccalaureate and Beyond. All income numbers are deflated to 2021 dollars using CPI series CUUR0000SA0.
2.所有其他结果, including how cancellation is distributed by 比赛 和种族, are substantively the same whether we assume these borrowers are dual- or single-filers.
Cominole, M.纽约州里奇(Ritchie.S., & 库尼J. (2020). 2008/18 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:08/18)数据文件文件 道理,2021 - 141年). U.S. 教育部. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 研究所 of Education Sciences. 摘自8/24/2022 http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.
Farrell, Diana, Fiona Greig, and 丹尼尔米. 沙利文. 2020. “Student Loan Debt: Who is Paying it Down?12bet官方研究所. http://8ns6.deckblatt-bewerbung.net/corporate/institute/household-debt-student-loan-debt.
格雷格，菲奥娜和丹尼尔M. 沙利文. 2021. “Who benefits from student debt cancellation?12bet官方研究所. http://8ns6.deckblatt-bewerbung.net/institute/research/household-debt/who-benefits-from-student-debt-cancellation.
我们感谢我们的研究团队, 特别是伯纳德·何, for his hard work and contribution to this research. 另外, 我们感谢伊丽莎白·埃利斯, Kristine范教授, 安娜贝利Jouard, 斯蒂芬·哈林顿, Kate Finnerty and Clarke Wilson for their support. We are indebted to our internal partners and colleagues, who support delivery of our agenda in a myriad of ways, and acknowledge their contributions to each and all releases.
We are also grateful for the invaluable constructive feedback we received from external experts and partners. We are deeply grateful for their generosity of time, insight, and support. This research was possible because of the vital partnership, data, and knowledge from Experian.
We would like to acknowledge Jamie Dimon, CEO of 12bet官方 & Co., for his vision and leadership in establishing the 研究所 and enabling the ongoing research agenda. We remain deeply grateful to Peter Scher, 副主席, 德米特里Marantis, 企业责任主管, 希瑟Higginbottom, 研究主管 & 政策, and others across the firm for the resources and support to pioneer a new approach to contribute to global economic analysis and insight.
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